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Agribusiness Outlook: Curt Kimmel - BATES Commodities


Published: Nov. 30, 2021 at 3:26 PM CST
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(25 NEWS) - Farmers work hard every year, bringing in the crop and raising livestock. Not only is it an industry, but it’s also a business.

I had a chance to talk to commodity broker Curt Kimmel of BATES Commodities -- this is his outlook.

“Well, as we go into December here, getting through Thanksgiving and everything, we’re seeing a situation where hopefully harvest will continue speed along here. We’ve got harvest activity still taking place because the beans have been too wet -- the tricks get them down to below 16%.

Some have been taken a little wet because they had some early beans that were 8%, so they went to try to blend them off a little bit. But as harvest wraps up, the one thing that comes in mind is once a producer fills up the bin, they’re not going to turn around, empty it right away --then, plus [...] in the stores, they’re not going to empty it right away. And so what happens is we create a little vacuum up going into year in and after the first year, most producers landowners want to sell cash grain for some income right after the first year, so that tax purposes and so forth so we can see a little grain move right after the first of the year.

So between now and in the year, we need to probably use some strength in here to get up sales.

But the number of things we need to watch is one South America. We’re in the growing season here where there’s a crop keeps maturing here. They’re going to need more rain and they’ll continue to watch that forecast as we go clear into February as it goes through the development stage. But Argentina was dry for a while. They received a little bit of rain. So they’ll be the hot spot to watch here as we go in year in.

The other thing to watch is of course is China. China’s just had a huge, huge appetite for AG products. Over a year, year and a half ago, we had President Trump having signed a trade deal phase one, and they’ve committed this not agricultural, but some other products and things. And as we go in the year and we’ll gauge those advances to see if they get to that level or how far short they are from that level. Because China is a huge, huge buyer of U.S. products on the AG side because they’ve got a huge, huge population to feed.. And so this Chinese business is going to be hopefully fairly strong as we go into year here. And has some good export business as we go into next spring.”

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